AAPL: Higher iPad, Mac View, Lower iPhones in Mizuho Consumer …
By Tiernan Ray
Mizuho Securities’s Abhey Lamba this morning reiterates a Buy rating on shares of Apple (AAPL), while adjusting his estimates for higher Mac and iPad sales but lower iPhone sales over the next couple of quarter’s, based on results of a survey of 600 consumers that the firm conducted.
The top-level finding of the survey, writes Lamba, was that “there is pent-up demand for computing devices, which should help drive PC sales over the next few years but consumers remain price conscious.”
Lamba thinks Apple “is clearly gaining significant momentum,” though Microsoft (MSFT) has a chance to “establish itself” in the tablet market.
The impending arrival of Microsoft’s Windows 8 operating system may have the effect of distorting PC demand by “freezing some sales ahead of the launch,” he thinks. The real catalyst, he thinks, will be the end-of-life of Windows XP support come April 2014, perhaps prompting buying in advance of that.
Lamba sees favorable trends for Mac purchases among PC buyers:
Nearly a quarter of the respondents reported owning at least one Mac with 6% of the participants owning only Mac computers. Around 30% of our survey participants planned to purchase a Mac as their next computer. Macs also exhibited the highest level of brand loyalty—95% of the Mac only users indicated that their next purchase will be an Apple computer and 70% of the respondents who owned both Mac and Windows machines planned to buy a Mac.
Microsoft is most likely to address shortcomings of the tablet market, he thinks, but he sees Apple’s iPad maintaining its dominance for the time being, writing that Microsoft “has its work cut out as it commanded the lowest hits among purchase intentions” in the survey.
Lamba raised his June- and September-quarter iPad number to 15.93 million units and 20.71 million, respectively, from a prior 15.22 million and 19.02 million. His Mac portable units go to 3.09 million and 3.78 million, respectively, from 3.03 million and 3.68 million, previously.
Boosted by the prospect of a “mini-iPad” introduction this holiday, Lamba raised his iPad estimate for the December quarter, as well, to 27.95 million units from a prior 22.83 million.
However, he cut his iPhone estimates this quarter and next to 27.18 million units and 25.82 million units from a prior 32.44 million and 28.55 million, respectively. He raised his December-quarter iPhone estimate from 41 million units to 51 million units to incorporate an expected “iPhone 5″ introduction this fall:
For iPhones, our checks indicate that there is some slowdown impacting current sales. Additionally, our supply chain checks indicate that Apple is likely running slightly below plan for the June quarter due to end demand deceleration ahead of the iPhone 5 launch. However, the supply chain partners are preparing for a very strong holiday season driven by the upgrade cycle and we expect iPhone 5 to drive a significant part of that demand.
Apple shares today are down $7.75, or 1.3%, at $574.35.
Article source: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/06/25/aapl-higher-ipad-mac-view-lower-iphones-in-mizuho-consumer-survey/
Category : iPad News
